Resilience Intelligence
Institutional risk analysis is typically additive: identify each risk factor, quantify it, add the results. This is not a failure of expertise — it is a structural property of how institutions are organised. Each agency models its own domain. No agency is mandated to model the interactions between domains. The fiscal authority models debt. The health authority models waiting lists. The energy authority models supply. None of them models what happens when all three deteriorate simultaneously and start amplifying each other.
The Compound Cascade Systems Modelling Framework addresses that gap. Rather than treating risk factors as independent inputs, it maps how each chain triggers, amplifies, or constrains the others — capturing the second- and third-order effects that additive analysis systematically misses. The output is not a prediction and not a single number. It is a scenario-weighted probability distribution that asks the question institutional analysis rarely asks: what happens when the problems stop being independent?
The methodology has been applied to two fundamentally different systems: a single-trigger external shock (Hormuz blockade → global food system collapse) and a multi-vector endogenous national decline (the UK). In both cases, compound assessment produced risk estimates 3–5 times higher than additive institutional projections — using the same underlying data. The consistency of that divergence across two very different domains suggests it is a structural property of how complex systems behave, not an artefact of either specific model.
Cascade Methodology — SSRN
The formal academic framework underpinning all Resilience Intelligence work — how cascade modeling is structured, validated, and applied to complex systems. This is where the method lives. The reports on the oil sites are what the method produces.
Read on SSRN →From Hormuz to Hunger
Mapping the cascade from global energy chokepoints to food system pressure — how a disruption at the Strait of Hormuz propagates far beyond fuel prices. Published across all three OilWatch platforms.
The Fall of the UK
Cascade methodology applied to the intersecting vulnerable strands of UK social and critical infrastructure — mapping systemic fragility across the full stack. Published across all three OilWatch platforms.
OilWatch Dashboards
Live energy supply monitoring across three regions — tracking days-of-supply, import dependency, and systemic exposure in near real time.
Where it connects: The cascade models built here — mapping how shocks propagate across energy and social systems — are the same structural approach used to design decision rehearsal scenarios. See how this feeds into the decision engine — Last Prompt →
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